Getting our sea legs: How Scotland could build a bumper economic future

08/03/2016
CommonWeal

CommonSpace columnist and director of Saorsa Ergonomics David Carr explores Scotland’s maritime heritage and its potential to revitalise our economy

SCOTLAND has 10,250 miles of coastline. The west in particular has an abundance of islands and fjord-like sea lochs. We are easily reachable by sea from neighbouring countries. We have an abundance of natural resources, from petrochemical deposits beneath our continental shelf to Europe’s strongest winds and tides. These are the geographic elements that shape how we carry ourselves.

We also have a rich maritime tradition. The Royal Scots Navy was a powerful force, prior to The Act of Union when it was subsumed into the British Navy. Under James IV it had as many ships as Norway currently has. The Great Michael was twice the size of its contemporary The Mary Rose and the largest ship in the world. It is said to have carried Mons Meg.

The tradition continued. It is no coincidence that we refer to cold weather as ‘baltic’ – Scots traded with and fished there.

Our dominant remaining maritime sector – oil and gas – is unstable and price dependent. There have been many recent layoffs and its earnings largely do not stay within the Scottish economy.

Our links with the maritime nations of Scandinavia stretch unbroken back to the Vikings – and earlier. There was a trick by Neil Oliver in his BBC series The Vikings: rotate a map of Northern Europe 45 degrees clockwise. You can now see the major trading route down the side of Norway, across Shetland, the Scottish coast and down to Ireland.

Scandinavia is our natural trading partner, and has been for a thousand years. Scotland is not an island nation. Large parts were administratively part of Norway until 1263. Shortly after, Margaret Maid of Norway ruled as Queen of Scots.

Later, a Scot, William Chalmers, was a director of the Swedish East India Company and lent his name to Sweden’s leading technological institute.

Then there were the puffers that steamed between islands, our remaining ferries, and the popularity of Scottish fisheries with the export trade – langoustines and spider crabs to Sweden and Spain – and our thriving aquaculture industry. Seaweed was a major commodity in the 19th century and contributed to agriculture locally and further afield.

And let’s not forget the ubiquity of Scottish marine engineering excellence. The stereotype of the (faux) Scots engineer onboard the USS Enterprise works because it is grounded in truth.

However, our dominant remaining maritime sector – oil and gas – is unstable and price dependent. There have been many recent layoffs and its earnings largely do not stay within the Scottish economy. It is dawning on us that its products need to remain safely below the sea bed.

Where does it take us? Much of our maritime capacity has withered. Can we bring it back?

We need an industrial policy that will generate wealth and deliver the services that people have a right to. The maritime sector plays a key part.

We need to. Absent of oil, Scotland’s GDP is only one per cent short of the UK average. But that isn’t enough. We need an industrial policy that will generate wealth and deliver the services that people have a right to. The maritime sector plays a key part.

What is to be done?

The obvious place to start would be green energy. We simply have an embarrassment of maritime resources – although there are currently political blocks to developing them.

Our near neighbour Denmark produces 140 per cent of its electricity requirement and has a ready export market via the Nord Pool Spot power exchange. Power is largely community owned. The huge wind farms that can be seen in the opening titles of TV’s ‘The Bridge’ belong to the Municipality of Copenhagen.

Scotland can probably do better. We have more wind. We have the enormous potential of tidal generation – not least in the Pentland Firth, one of the world’s strongest and most consistent currents.

As an aside – surplus energy might be used to produce hydrogen from water, allowing a clean land transport industry. Unst in Shetland was a global pioneer in powering hydrogen fuel cell cars powered by wind turbines.

We will need to develop physical and human infrastructure for construction and maintenance. Could the fabrication yards in Nigg be revitalised along with other shipyards throughout Scotland? Installations will need to be serviced. This means service vessels, providing high quality offshore accommodation appropriate to the types of job we need to create.

We will need to work out the best way to operate and run our energy infrastructure: a way to ensure that it delivers maximum economic benefit is public control – at national and community level.

The obvious place to start would be green energy. We simply have an embarrassment of maritime resources – although there are currently political blocks to developing them.

Our neighbours manage this. The Norwegian community-owned Statoil has already signed up to build the world’s first floating wind farm 25-30 km off the coast of Peterhead, a pilot for far offshore generation. A Hammerfest municipal company is installing tidal generators in the Sound of Islay.

There will, of course, be cooperation with the major multinationals such as Dong and Siemens. If we are clever, we adopt build-operate-train strategies so that facilities can be passed into public ownership and jobs created for communities.

We will need electrical interconnectors to our neighbours. Currently the Moyle interconnector to Ireland is being refurbished, while NorthConnect to Norway seems stalled by Norwegian-Scottish protocol (The Norwegian government has to go through the UK).

This could all become part of a Smart Super Grid, as featured recently in Bella Caledonia . Scotland could easily achieve 200-500 per cent of its energy needs, the remainder contributing to regional carbon reduction.

Scandinavian partnership looks inevitable. The windfarms will be located between Scotland and there. We have complementary skillsets. Some work has already started. There will be a lot of to-ing and fro-ing. The sensible, greenest way to do this would be by sea. We can expect a growth in ‘short sea shipping’, passenger and cargo.

We will need to work out the best way to operate and run our energy infrastructure: a way to ensure that it delivers maximum economic benefit is public control – at national and community level.

Our existing, once thriving but now underused East coast ports – including Leith, Rosyth, Dundee, Aberdeen, Stonehaven, Peterhead, Inverness, Nigg – could be well placed for supporting offshore wind and for transport.

Scottish shipping will also have its sights further afield. The disintegration of the polar ice caps means that ships can already make passage the short way round from China, over Northern Russia. ‘Arctic Rim’ shipping will be a growth area. There is already investment in rail infrastructure from Churchill, Manitoba southwards.

Scotland’s geography means that we will be looking towards the North Atlantic . We have two conveniently placed, large, natural harbours at Sullom Voe and Scapa Flow. Lateral North, a research and design collective based in Glasgow, has already done some work on a ‘Possible Orkney’ , addressing the infrastructure, including a city, that might support a new container hub. We also have various Nato facilities, especially around Loch Ewe, which supported North Atlantic shipping during WWII.

Involvement in Arctic Rim shipping will potentially benefit the Scottish economy not only through job creation, but also through port fees and taxation – provided Scotland has full control over this.

Scotland’s geography also suggests benefits from inshore transport. Much of our land is difficult to build roads through, and environmentally sensitive. But we have a lot of coast. Our neighbours, with similar challenges, use maritime transport to move around their countries. Ferries and hydrofoils are normal to them.

The disintegration of the polar ice caps means that ships can already make passage the short way round from China, over Northern Russia. ‘Arctic Rim’ shipping will be a growth area.

Scotland has some ferries to the islands – but could there be more? During the recent closure of the Forth Road Bridge, interest was revived in a Kirkcaldy to Edinburgh hovercraft service.

Moving transport from the road to the sea would potentially yield carbon savings. It could also open up the relatively inaccessible West coast and islands, bringing opportunities to local communities.

Shipping could also deliver benefits to Highlands and Islands communities through tourism. The precedent here is for the highly popular, domestic, seaborne tourism that thrived when steamers carried passengers ‘doon the watter’ from Glasgow. This was killed off in the 1970s with the advent of cheap flights.

In mainland Europe, affordable, luxury ships are a popular way of seeing the countryside alongside the Rhine and Danube. Why not the Highlands and Islands? There has been some work done on using luxury tourism to develop the economy on the west coast of Ireland. This could be a way to promote domestic tourism, keeping money in the local economy and saving on carbon from overseas flights.

As on the East coast, there is already much ferry and fishing port infrastructure that could be built on, from Kinlochbervie down to Dunoon and the various points on the South West coast.

Scotland has some ferries to the islands – but could there be more? During the recent closure of the Forth Road Bridge, interest was revived in a Kirkcaldy to Edinburgh hovercraft service.

We next have to think about how to build up our maritime capacity. It would be sensible to do this in a way that used local resources, provided local jobs and kept money in the local economy.

Scotland has a good head start, with its tradition of shipbuilding excellence. We have first class naval architecture and marine engineering expertise in our universities. We have a high tech maritime industry, involved in both shipping and renewable energy.

We will also need shipbuilding capacity. Ferguson Marine in Port Glasgow has started to invest in green ferries. This is a start.

There were fears for the BAE Systems yards, which are still largely dependent on orders from the UK government, due to political instability. Orders for the Type 26 frigate have been reduced by 40% from 13 to 8 – albeit with design work for a future class carried forward. The yards look set to survive. The gap in orders is being filled by Offshore Patrol Vessels. Nevertheless may be a business case for civilian diversification, to use spare capacity.

A recent, in depth report indicates high return on investment and job creation for using the shipyards to create a renewable energy industry for comparatively small investment.

Note that Clydeside shipyards already have experience of nationalised ownership and community operation. The experience of Upper Clyde Shipbuilders is part of the national psyche.

Scotland has a good head start, with its tradition of shipbuilding excellence. We have first class naval architecture and marine engineering expertise in our universities.

It is also possible that the yards may be put to use building the various other types of civilian ship needed for our economic infrastructure.

We are, however, currently short of skilled workers. We will need to recruit and train people. But that will not be difficult when their are attractive jobs waiting for them on completion.

The lowest risk approach to building up the Scottish economy will be to start with what we already have. Our geography – and history – suggest a direction of travel. The maritime industry will be a key part. It could bring enormous benefits to communities – jobs, income – as well as saving carbon.

There is an thought experiment which illustrates our huge maritime potential. What could we do with a huge port facility, on a sea loch, with easy transport connections to Glasgow? How many jobs would it create in tourism alone? Or transport to the Highlands and Islands? Or supporting renewable energy infrastructure?

We have such a port. But we’d need to send the submarines away.

Picture courtesy of Elodie Ruedas