CommonSpace columnist James McEnaney says Theresa May’s Brexit plan gives Scotland a mandate for a second independence referendum
IT may have taken 207 days (enough time to walk from London to Paris via Brussels, Warsaw, Athens and Rome) but Theresa May has finally confirmed what anyone with an ounce of sense already knew: Brexit means hard Brexit.
In her long-awaited speech, the prime minister admitted that the UK would be out of the Single Market and, almost certainly, the Customs Union. She also outlined her plans to pursue a “bold and ambitious” (translation: extremely complicated) free trade deal with the EU, a process which, assuming it is successful at all, could take more than a decade.
Under such circumstances there can be little doubt that our brave new Brexit world, designed and delivered by a Tory party that is currently waltzing, seemingly unopposed, towards another General Election victory, will be built upon a relentless assault on the fabric of our quality of life, all in a desperate quest to “maintain competitiveness”.
There can be little doubt that our brave new Brexit world will be built upon a relentless assault on the fabric of our quality of life, all in a desperate quest to “maintain competitiveness”.
To quote Nicola Sturgeon, this leaves us facing the Conservative utopia of a “low wage, low tax, de-regulated economy” which will lead to a devastating “race to the bottom”.
She is correct, but none of this should come as a surprise – in the end, neither Europe nor the emboldened English right was ever going to compromise on the principle that was always at the heart of this maelstrom: the free movement of people.
It is, in more ways than one, a black and white issue, and the outcome towards which we are hurtling was always an inevitability.
While it is true that many European businesses stand to lose out from barriers to trade with the UK, the fact remains that they would lose much, much more if those same barriers were to begin to appear all across the continent.
That anyone ever deluded themselves into thinking that German car-makers and French farmers wouldn’t understand this, and would therefore strong-arm the EU into a ‘bespoke deal’ with the oh-so-important United Kingdom, shows just how cripplingly shallow the thinking behind the Leave campaign really was.
During the first indyref campaign the EU became a key battleground, with Yes claiming that an independent Scotland would become a full member and the No campaign insisting that only the rejection of independence would protect Scotland’s place in Europe.
If the remaining 27 members of the EU were to make Britain a special case, allowing it to largely maintain its economic position while rejecting social integration (symbolised most completely in the right of EU nationals to live and work in any EU country), they would deal a serious, probably fatal blow to the entire European project. That was never, ever going to happen.
So damn the consequences, damn the experts and damn the future – a hard, angry, xenophobic Brexit it is.
What does all of this mean for Scotland? Based on what Theresa May has said it seems that Nicola Sturgeon has little choice but to pursue an extremely risky second referendum. The first minister, against her own nature, may now be forced go all in on a last roll of the constitutional dice.
There is absolutely no question that this decision would – will – be entirely legitimate.
During the first indyref campaign the EU became a key battleground, with Yes claiming that an independent Scotland would become a full member and the No campaign insisting that only the rejection of independence would protect Scotland’s place in Europe.
Scotland did indeed vote to remain as part of that UK, but the union’s other members have now changed the terms of the deal without Scotland’s consent.
The clearest summary of this came from Scottish Conservatives leader Ruth Davidson, who told voters: “I think it is disingenuous … to say that No means out and Yes means in, when actually the opposite is true. No means we stay in, we are members of the European Union.
Yet after all that, Scotland now faces being dragged out of Europe, despite nearly two-thirds of Scottish voters wishing to remain. Even if the No campaign were right in 2014, it is now continued membership of the UK that guarantees the EU exit that they considered to be such a serious threat.
Scotland did indeed vote to remain as part of that UK, but the union’s other members have now changed the terms of the deal without Scotland’s consent. Furthermore, the people of Scotland have elected a parliament with an openly pro-independence majority, this time one formed of two different parties. Holyrood certainly has a mandate to call a referendum.
But holding a vote is one thing – winning it is quite another. There should be no doubt that indyref 2 will be more difficult than the 2014 campaign, when a wave of new-found, grassroots enthusiasm swept across the country, raising support for independence from around 30 per cent to 45 per cent.
Positions have largely become more, not less, bitterly entrenched since 2014, and those who believe that the second independence campaign should essentially replicate the first are wrong – arguments around self-determination for the people of Scotland have been strengthened but in other areas changes have to be made, and fast.
Furthermore, the people of Scotland have elected a parliament with an openly pro-independence majority, this time one formed of two different parties. Holyrood certainly has a mandate to call a referendum.
We need answers to the ‘big questions’ such as currency, the deficit and an independent Scotland’s position in Europe. We have to be honest – both with those who voted No and ourselves – that independence provides many opportunities, and plenty of challenges, but few guarantees.
Crucially, independence supporters need to abandon, once and for all, the delusion that the press was to blame for the No vote in 2014 and accept the fact that calls for revolution will be subject to greater scrutiny than a defence of the status quo.
None of this will be easy, and nobody is under any illusions about the price of a second, successive failure. These are not ideal conditions but, if you wish to change things, you must first deal with the world as it is rather than how you wish it were.
That’s how you win.
Picture courtesy of Number 10
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