CommonSpace columnist and Common Weal director Robin McAlpine says the SNP must examine its approach in order to avoid discontent becoming a big obstacle for the independence movement
LOOKING out the window as I write, the leaves are turning and the wind is blowing. I've pulled a jersey on and the woody smell of autumn is in the air. There's no doubt summer is over.
But the weather is not the only thing to which we're going to have to reacclimatise ourselves now the strange summer of 2016 has passed. It looks like Scottish politics is about to 'pivot' again, and that brings with it a whole new set of issues those of us of a progressive and independence-supporting persuasion need to address.
So while my concerns about mixed messages coming from senior SNP figures are not completely allayed (there is still enough 'fast referendum' chatter around to keep you going if you look for it), it certainly seems to me that the SNP leadership is now signalling that the likelihood of an early referendum is diminishing quickly (Iain Macwhirter’s column at the weekend spells out the line and looks very much like it is the result of briefing from Nicola Sturgeon's office).
It looks like Scottish politics is about to 'pivot' again, and that brings with it a whole new set of issues those of us of a progressive and independence-supporting persuasion need to address.
That leaves the independence movement with some problems. One is how to deal with being goaded about having 'bottled it'. One is the probability of some restlessness and dissent among the troops who have been marched half way up the hill only to be marched back down again.
But these are transient and can be dealt with (and there is plenty for the movement to be getting on with to prepare internally for whenever the next referendum is). The more pressing issue is that eyes must inevitably turn back to the domestic agenda. And, without the arenas of an impending referendum or the Brexit drama to draw attention, it is the domestic agenda which will inevitably frame the story.
Put simply, if the Scottish Government collectively and Nicola Sturgeon personally start to look tired or unimpressive, or if they face conflicts and fall-outs, their ability to lead a dynamic and effective Yes campaign is harmed.
And, my cards on the table, while I have some substantial concerns about the Scottish Government's domestic agenda and the way it has been operating, as independence supporters we just can't afford for the Scottish Government or the first minister to become unpopular.
It certainly seems to me that the SNP leadership is now signalling that the likelihood of an early referendum is diminishing quickly.
This is, of course, a dilemma. Some people would like everyone just to keep quiet and say not a critical word about the Scottish Government until after independence. The idea seems to be that if no-one on our side of the debate says anything critical it'll only be the Tories and Labour (and the media and the anti-independence Scottish establishment) who offer anything other than glowing praise. And since they're 'the baddies', it doesn't count anyway.
The idea that the public might fall out of love with the SNP all by themselves is not given sufficient credence by people who make this argument. And there is plenty that might test that love affair, possibly to its limits.
Right at the head of this series of risks is local government. It is ironic that the risk to the SNP is not that it might lose the 2017 local government elections but that it might win. The period from about now for at least the next five years in local government is pretty grim. And this grimness will coincide with the SNP potentially taking over a number of local authorities (not least Glasgow).
It is a period where historic PFI debt is about to increase sharply. One SNP councillor I spoke to told me his council's PFI bill would rise from £30m a year to £50m a year between now and 2020. At the same time its overstretched budget will be cut in real terms and social demand will rise.
That leaves the independence movement with some problems. One is how to deal with being goaded about having 'bottled it'.
This is currently a Labour-led council the SNP hopes to take. He expressed great worry that he was going to be part of an administration which would take over just in time to administer the most swingeing cuts the council had ever seen. To say he is not relishing being placed in the position of being his very own local 'George Osborne' is an understatement.
The Scottish Government really seems to be local government-blind. John Swinney, a man not known for being confrontational, has spent much of the last decade in a kind of low-level war with local authorities, seeking to control them for the sake of being able to say he froze the Council Tax and de-prioritising their financial wellbeing.
He now seems to be carrying this fight with him into education where – for reasons I can't understand since no-one was really asking for it – he has been trying to strip away more of their core functions.
The solution to all of this was fairly straightforward – the failed Council Tax should have been replaced with some variation of a property tax (in my opinion, land ownership should have been included). This would have enabled local authorities to increase their revenue in a progressive way and ameliorate the worst of the cuts. And there should have been a proper inquiry into PFI debt to work out how to reduce the burden.
There is also the probability of some restlessness and dissent among the troops who have been marched half way up the hill only to be marched back down again.
But both have been rejected by the Scottish Government. It looks like outright denial to me, and if the conversations I've had are anything like representative, the first real rebellion in the SNP in recent history may begin in the local government sector.
There are other problems. I worry that Andrew Wilson's Growth Commission and an impending referendum will be seen by rightwingers as their best chance to 'flip' the party on fracking, just like the last time when an impending referendum was used by Angus Robertson to 'flip' the party over Nato.
But, unlike the hilarious framing the Scotsman is engaged in (poor wee serial bully Ineos is the victim of a well-funded environmental lobby? – away and chase yersel), unease about fracking is driven by community concern. Any wobble by the Scottish Government could cause serious problems.
On education, the Scottish Government's agenda is risky – experimental at best, and totally unencumbered with any link to serious policy advice at worst. This is precisely the approach that led to a rebellion of middle class parents in the leafy suburbs when it was imposed in England. You think it's only me and all the teachers in Scotland who are unhappy?
There are other problems that can be seen already. The Named Person scheme (which I support) is divisive, partly because of how it has been presented. It's not winning many friends.
The more pressing issue is that eyes must inevitably turn back to the domestic agenda.
Dragging their feet over even very modest rules on lobbying transparency leaves the government wide open to the next lobbying scandal. And make no mistake, there is always a next lobbying scandal; the number of former SNP insiders filling their boots in the corporate sector makes it inevitable.
There are external problems. I can't see how Scotland is going to get anything much (if at all) out of Brexit negotiations and it's certainly not going to come close to meeting the red lines Sturgeon set out when she appeared to be trying to trigger a referendum. There is a risk that this makes Scottish ministers look impotent – and if there isn't the fast referendum, their threats might look like empty bluffs.
There are parliamentary problems. The SNP doesn't seem to have absorbed fully that it is now a minority government and is still behaving as if it can operate through command-and-control. It can't – and this is bouncing it towards a number of votes (Council Tax, APD) where the only chance of winning is with Tory support. That is beyond risky.
There are internal problems. Both the SNP and the Scottish Government are incredibly centralised and there is rising discontent in the party and among its politicians. The election of Angus Robertson as depute leader, should that happen at the party conference in October, will be greeted with enthusiasm by very few and with utter dismay by many.
Put simply, if the Scottish Government collectively and Nicola Sturgeon personally start to look tired or unimpressive, or if they face conflicts and fall-outs, their ability to lead a dynamic and effective Yes campaign is harmed.
But in the end, the biggest problem is that there is much too little to be inspired by – and inspiring the population is precisely what is needed to position us for another referendum. Barring childcare, there are no real transformational ideas (unless you include education – and treat 'transformation' and 'warfare' as synonymous…).
And even in childcare I have big worries. Common Weal published a paper suggesting the only way to do this properly was by setting up a National Childcare Company.
Instead, it is being dropped on local authorities to deliver in a period of virtual crisis in their budgets. I seriously worry it will be a bodge job.
And there are 'baby boxes' – but it is to be noted that in Finland where the policy began these are a small part of a big programme of support and training for parents before the birth of their first child. Without that, they're just boxes.
The only potentially transformational proposals I've heard are around energy and food. But the energy stuff is still vague and will the Scottish Government really face up to power companies it has traditionally cosied up to? And when it comes down to it, will food policy end up as much more than a sop to the big farming lobby in the face of the end of CAP payments?
The biggest problem is that there is much too little to be inspired by – and inspiring the population is precisely what is needed to position us for another referendum.
The growth fund is a good idea, but it's a weak substitute for our proposals for a proper Scottish National Investment Bank. We're publishing a major paper on this very soon and I'd urge the SNP to look closely at it.
I know that in recent months I've been a bit doom and gloom. I know that some people don't think even constructive criticism is helpful right now. But ask yourself this – which of the things I've raised in this article go away and don't happen if we all stop talking and writing about them?
They don't all need to be catastrophes – in government it's the drip-drip of disappointment and disillusionment that kills you much more often than one big disaster.
And you can't just say "but trust the leadership because they'll make it all OK". Almost all of the above are problems created by the Scottish Government all by itself.
So I won't be carping endlessly over the next few years because an unpopular Scottish Government helps nothing. But if the SNP leadership doesn't take all of this seriously, no amount of silence on the part of its critical friends will rescue it.
Picture courtesy of Robin McAlpine
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