CommonSpace columnist and Common Weal director Robin McAlpine alters his position on indyref 2
THE summer's events have divided the independence movement into two rough categories. We've always all believed that Scottish independence will come sooner or later, but the talk of referendums being 'highly likely' within the next 'two years' has created two camps.
Let's call them 'Team Sooner' and 'Team Later'. Until now I've identified myself very much with 'Team Later' (though by later I meant five years). And I certainly wanted to hold off on setting a timescale until later – why give up your wriggle room earlier than you have to?
But I think I'd like to apply for a transfer. Or more accurately, I'd like to join a new team. Let's call it 'Team Get It Done'.
I think I'd like to apply for a transfer. Or more accurately, I'd like to join a new team. Let's call it 'Team Get It Done'.
Team Get It Done doesn't think we're getting a referendum in the next two years, and nor does it think we're ready to fight a referendum in the next two years. But it is getting nervous about aimlessness, drift and inconsistency.
While Team G-I-D thinks that diving into a referendum ill-prepared is reckless, it also thinks that five years of nods and winks and ifs and buts (though without a final decision) could be every bit as harmful.
It worries about the 'Gordon Brown-ification' of the indy movement, all big-man tough talk – until a firm decision on whether to go to the polls is called for (when we discovered that in fact he was just a feart wee laddie).
Team G-I-D worries about how much stamina the grassroots activists have for being marched up and down the hill. It worries that keeping people busy and getting them ready are not the same thing.
It worries that the main independence-supporting party in Scotland isn't getting more popular and sees some genuine threats ahead. It fears growing indiscipline across the movement if there is no proper focus for people's energy.
While Team G-I-D thinks that diving into a referendum ill-prepared is reckless, it also thinks that five years of nods and winks and ifs and buts (though without a final decision) could be every bit as harmful.
But Team G-I-D's position is a long way way from being pessimistic. It sees some remarkable opportunities ahead.
For example, it recognises that if Brexit goes badly, there may well be the chance to run a 'rescue Scotland' campaign. But also that if Brexit goes well, there is an immediate precedent for 'taking back control'.
(Incidentally, for my money the latter is preferable for indy supporters. I may be in a minority on this but I can't see how a messy and painful unravelling of a multinational social and economic union creates the best conditions to ask people to unravel another multinational social and economic union…)
It recognises that unpopular Tories in London look set to dig in for the long term as a result of one of the world's most biased medias running a dark and nasty propaganda campaign against Jeremy Corbyn's Labour. And the Tories are turning really disgusting.
It sees sufficient time ahead to deal with the problems with the case for independence from the last campaign. It will have time to deal with the oil issue (and indeed since oil revenues are now effectively zero, the only way is up…).
Team G-I-D worries about how much stamina the grassroots activists have for being marched up and down the hill. It worries that keeping people busy and getting them ready are not the same thing.
It looks at the opinion polls and sees in them all the material needed for victory. It seems that about five or six per cent of the 2014 Yes vote may have drifted away (counterbalanced by eight or nine per cent who have come over).
So a coalition between old and new Yes voters is already enough to win a referendum (though not by a big enough margin – more work to be done, for sure).
It also feels a great degree of comfort in the so-called 'rise of the Tories'. If Scotland's Tory media thinks a couple of points rise in Holyrood voting and the deification of Ruth Davidson is a sound foundation for a winning No campaign, I'm delighted.
We've been here before with a Unionist Messiah. Make no mistake, Davidson is the new Jim Murphy – so completely protected by a supine media that when she and her troops are finally tested for real their failure will be very public indeed. Such is the fate of all those born from hype.
But fundamentally, Team Get It Done is very confident indeed that Britain is in a horrendous mess which it's not getting out of soon and that a credible, visionary future for Scotland that will be highly attractive to 70 per cent of the population is very achievable.
But Team G-I-D's position is a long way way from being pessimistic. It sees some remarkable opportunities ahead.
And just as fundamentally, there is both a comfortableness and a confidence in 'being Scottish'. The politics of identity has been shown to be powerful almost everywhere in the world – for both good and ill. The politics of Scottish identity are good. They will take us to independence if we get the right campaign.
So we need to decide when we think is our best moment. This is a trade-off. The faster we go, the less prepared we are and the bigger the risk. The longer we wait the greater the risk of disillusionment, fatigue and a reputation for prevarication.
Until recently, I wanted to wait for 2021, to use the Scottish election that year as a platform from which to launch. My instincts now tell me that the nature of that election may be too unpredictable to rely on. I feel we need to go earlier.
But I just don't see how we can be prepared and ready in under two years, and I'd want a year at least to roll out the 'pre-campaign' before moving into a formal referendum (which I think should be much shorter this time). So at the moment I feel like we should be talking about late 2019 or some time 2020.
For example, it recognises that if Brexit goes badly, there may well be the chance to run a 'rescue Scotland' campaign. But also that if Brexit goes well, there is an immediate precedent for 'taking back control'.
Either way, we now need to settle on some kind of a timescale. We don't need to write it in blood, but we do need to give everyone a route map and we also need to close down constant speculation (and the sense of confusion which that engenders).
That will also cause us to focus our minds. There is a lot to do – a lot – and if we commit to something like this kind of timescale we need to get started.
Here, I haven't changed any of my opinions at all. There needs to be a serious research unit set up immediately. It needs to be staffed with people capable of commissioning and carrying out the policy research needed to create what I've called a 'consolidated business plan for a new nation state'.
We need a detailed plan for establishing a currency, a central bank, a civil service, a constitution, an embassy network, a pensions and social security system, a national grid with energy supply regulations, a tax system, an army.
If Scotland's Tory media thinks a couple of points rise in Holyrood voting and the deification of Ruth Davidson is a sound foundation for a winning No campaign, I'm delighted.
More shallow PR work won't do it – too many indy-supporting politicians are on the record saying that seeking to dissolve a social and economic union without detailed proposals for how to do it is unacceptable. So we need detailed proposals. And we've got 18 months to get it done.
And we need a proper cross-party, all-movement campaign organisation. Its job is to get every indy campaigner in the country trained, developed and prepared for the most important campaign they'll ever fight.
And its job is also to prepare a proper, professional campaign strategy using all the approaches and techniques which are available – and which are shown to be effective. We also need all this done in the next 18 months.
If this is all done – and all done seriously – we can be ready with a proper business case for a new nation, a fully-developed strategy for winning and a highly organised and prepared grassroots movement by St Andrews Day 2018. We can then be ready to fight a campaign by mid-2019 if we need to.
Make no mistake, Davidson is the new Jim Murphy – so completely protected by a supine media that when she and her troops are finally tested for real their failure will be very public indeed.
But there's another thing which unites Team Get It Done – and that's the conviction that there is only one way this is going to happen. We need to do all of this together, not in silos.
During the Scottish elections this year many people criticised Rise for using independence for party political gain. Sure they did. So did the Greens. So did the SNP. All political parties use big issues for party political gain.
And each interest group describes a future independent Scotland in the way that best suits its interests. I think the Greens are in a bit of denial about energy and oil. I think a lot of the grassroots are in denial about deficit. The SNP is certainly in denial about banking, corporations, tax and regulation.
The Greens think that what wins the referendum is decarbonisation. The movement thinks it is about pride in Scottishness or about hopes for a better society. The SNP thinks various things at different times, from 'it's a matter of democratic principle' to 'it's about aspirational middle classes'.
They're all right – and all wrong. It's about many things, expressed in many ways. But they must be tied together in a coherent strategy and they must be consistent with the policy platform. And policy and strategy must unite, not divide.
Until recently, I wanted to wait for 2021, to use the Scottish election that year as a platform from which to launch. My instincts now tell me that the nature of that election may be too unpredictable to rely on. I feel we need to go earlier.
The SNP must put its internal self-interest aside. We all must. We need to get together and build this project, not in the spirit of command and control, but in the spirit of mutual determination to win. Every alternative to this is an unnecessary risk.
Team Get It Done isn't the team I initially wanted to join. But politics isn't about where you want to be, its about where you are. And, from where I am, it's the best bet we have.
If none of this has happened by the early spring of next year, I don't see how we can adequately be ready. If the SNP leadership prefers secrecy and control to mutual working, I have very serious doubts about its capability. And if we're not ready to fight soon, this could all end up in the lap of the Gods.
So, in the face of declining options, I change my position. Let's let the world know we're going to make our next stand probably in 2020. And let's start acting like we want to win it. I'm very confident we can – if we focus.
Picture: CommonSpace
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