In the second of two articles on the future of the Scottish independence movement, parliamentary researcher Shaun Kavanagh says Yessers must emerge from post-indyref grief and get to work on indyref 2
IT'S worthwhile just to recap on some of the developments that have taken place that should normally provide the fuel for a future drive for independence:
– English Votes for English Laws (Evel), effectively meaning no MP from a Scottish constituency can ever be prime minster of the UK and ipso facto can’t lead the UK.
– The pension age has increased for women, meaning some will lose out up to £30,000.
Read more – Shaun Kavanagh: Why the Yes movement should give 'Freedom Square' a wide berth
– Drastic cuts to the public funding of onshore windfarms have been announced which Renewables Scotland claims could reduce Scotland’s economy by over £3bn.
– Westminster negotiators tried to use the Scotland Bill fiscal agreement talks to cut Scotland’s budget by £7bn over 10 years.
– The announcement that 2,500 HMRC jobs in Scotland are to go.
– The MoD announced 13 Type 26 frigates, with Defence Secretary Michael Fallon making it clear that the investment was conditional on Scots rejecting independence. In the end, the order looks like being just eight ships, while up to £205bn will be spent on upgrading Trident.
– The EU Referendum…
Considering all of these factors above, it would be easy to look at the polls that continually show support for independence floundering below 50 per cent and conclude that the wider body politic in Scotland is crazy.
Considering all of these factors above, it would be easy to look at the polls that continually show support for independence floundering below 50 per cent and conclude that the wider body politic in Scotland is crazy.
Yet for me, this confirms that support for independence has reached a plateau that will require some serious hard graft from dedicated volunteers in order to progress any further.
The main reasons of why we lost last time are due in no small part to certain policies and the messages surrounding them – currency, pensions and the economic outlook writ large.
However, we have to be able to look at ourselves – the foot soldiers – and ask ourselves if we really are doing enough to advance that average percentage of support beyond 48 per cent. It’s not enough to say it’s the purpose of the SNP leadership to sort out. It isn’t.
The SNP is a successful political party, and independence is its raison d’etre. But like all successful political parties, the SNP also has many other issues to contend with beyond independence for Scotland. Moreover, not everyone who wants independence supports the SNP.
Several other practical issues remain, however. Better Together has become the embodiment of a poorly-run political campaign. Even during the EU referendum campaign, several figures on both sides of the debate were sure to avoid comparisons with Better Together.
Therefore, in the event of a future referendum campaign, will the anti-independence movement really make the same mistakes twice? I highly doubt it.
Yet for me, this confirms that support for independence has reached a plateau that will require some serious hard graft from dedicated volunteers in order to progress any further.
The Better Together equivalent next time will certainly organise a far more joined-up approach to messaging and organisation. While they will no doubt employ the usual tactics of economic ruin in the event of independence (it worked last time), they will also promote a far more positive vision of Britishness that will surely be spearheaded by Ruth Davidson.
Those who doubt Davidson’s skill as a politician only need look at the recent Scottish Conservatives election campaign and Davidson’s personal ratings as a political leader.
Moreover, the two sides of Yes and No during indyref may well be reversed next time around. The crucial reason why the Yes and No sides came to be was due to the skill of Alex Salmond as a negotiator during the Edinburgh Agreement in 2012.
Conceding the option of a second question on the ballot, Salmond was able to formulate the question of his choosing, as well as the timing of the vote. What resulted was the deliberate creation of a Yes campaign – itself an expression of positivity compared to No.
Next time, however, the question may well be different. For example, a future ballot may read, "Do you believe that Scotland should remain part of the United Kingdom?" In that event, what is now the Yes movement would ultimately have to campaign for a No vote.
We have to be able to look at ourselves – the foot soldiers – and ask ourselves if we really are doing enough to advance that average percentage of support beyond 48 per cent.
This is hypothetical, of course, but the point remains that the former dichotomies of Yes/No and unionist/nationalist must be discarded quickly in favour of a more nuanced approach.
A platform must be given to the grown-up questions about sustainable economic growth, the running of public services and progressive politics within this new discussion as opposed to the tribal 'what side are you on?’.
One of the most positive aspects of the indyref was the self-education of hundreds of thousands of Scots who showed a willingness to learn and decide for themselves.
We have to make sure that independence supporters don’t believe the hype and rhetoric of their own side for the sake of it. We always have to be smarter, on the front foot, and willing to self-critique in a constructive manner.
It is simply not helpful to dismiss negative news stories as "unionist lies" or "SNP baaaad"; or denounce every updated publication of the price of oil as 'propaganda'.
It’s not enough to say it’s the purpose of the SNP leadership to sort out. It isn’t.
For example, earlier this month I attended a local independence group’s social night to commemorate the second anniversary of indyref. The night was a success, combining a number of political speakers and entertainment in order to raise funds for the future campaign.
On more than one occasion the issue of GERS figures was raised by speakers, and casually dismissed as a pack of lies. This made me uneasy.
The GERS figures certainly don’t provide the full picture of Scotland’s economic health, but there is a clear fiscal deficit and that should cause real concern. We can’t just dismiss this out of hand by saying it’s nothing to worry about. There will need to be frank and honest discussions on how best to deal with the deficit, and in the end, tough decisions will need to be made.
Those who voted No last time will need to see that we can own up to these crucial factors with a solid agenda; not shy away from them by calling foul against the "unionist press" for having the audacity of talking Scotland down.
Since the morning of 19 September 2014, the independence movement in Scotland has been going through the stages of grief in a non-linear way. Denial, anger and depression were certainly evident for a long time afterwards.
A platform must be given to the grown-up questions about sustainable economic growth, the running of public services and progressive politics within this new discussion as opposed to the tribal 'what side are you on?’.
Every time I heard someone tell me that the UK establishment somehow fixed the referendum result in 2014 I felt a piece of me die inside. Thankfully, this line of recitation has largely ceased and wiser heads seem to have prevailed.
We are now moving through bargaining and acceptance phases. It’s now time to rid ourselves of the restraints and stop fighting old wars. Let’s stop fretting about just how biased the BBC is as an institution, and start looking at solutions to the problem. Let’s quit the tribal positioning between Yes/No and nationalist/unionist.
A more professional approach is now required. A good start would be for local independence-supporting groups to start organising their membership in preparation for what’s to come.
How many groups, or local party branches, have utilised the skills of their membership and organised talks, lectures, study groups to research strengths and weaknesses?
Who has given their membership tasks of studying up on certain areas of weakness in UK Government policy and how this could change in an independent Scotland? How many have worked out a plan on how to canvass voters, whether by ward, by neighbourhood?
A more professional approach is now required. A good start would be for local independence-supporting groups to start organising their membership in preparation for what’s to come.
There is no silver bullet in politics and there is no guarantee that one method over another will win the day, but the independence movement simply has to up its campaigning across many areas.
At its absolute simplest, a campaign is simply finding out who will decide the outcome, where they are, what matters to them, and establishing ways in which to reach them.
The reason for this is simple: we need to understand who our target is. In order to do that we need to identify three key groups: our 'base' – the people we know who we can rely on; the 'swing' group – the people who can be persuaded but could go either way; and the 'anti' group – those who are unlikely to support independence.
In order to do this we have to focus all of our limited resources in sourcing our base and locking them in, and then targeting our swing votes thereafter.
That means working with activists at all levels, future council candidates, MPs and MSPs from all independence supporting parties to craft an appealing message and arguments that are relevant to voters.
This may well be jumping the gun, but really, having the simple basics of a co-ordinated framework in advance of any future announcement is the very least we should be focussing on.
This may well be jumping the gun, but really, having the simple basics of a co-ordinated framework in advance of any future announcement is the very least we should be focussing on.
What we have is a set of values that drives why we want independence. That in itself provides the foundation for what we believe and why we are prepared to argue the merits of it.
Two years seems like enough time to grieve. It’s time to move on. Every new poll released that shows support for independence below 50 per cent should be a wake-up call for us to up our game. And there has been no shortage of those. These should provide a guide for us of where we are as a movement, and as such, we are not winning the debate.
So, let’s get to work.
Picture courtesy of Ninian Reid
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