In the first of two articles on the future of the Scottish independence movement, writer Shaun Kavanagh asks whether rallies and marches have any worthwhile place at this stage of campaigning
THIS September marked the two-year anniversary of the Scottish independence referendum. While local independence-supporting groups held commemorative nights to mark the occasion, a rally took place on the Saturday in George Square on the 17th, and another took place in Glasgow Green on the 18th .
Yet through all the hubbub, a poll by Ipsos Mori was released over the weekend that went relatively unnoticed. The poll revealed that support for independence was still in the minority, with 48 per cent of likely voters backing a Yes vote in the event of a second referendum. Ultimately there lies the enigma of the independence movement.
Nicola Sturgeon will not take a chance – quite rightly – on holding another vote unless she is sure she can win it, and that requires sustained polling evidence that well over 50 per cent of Scots will vote Yes.
Winning those who are currently not in favour of independence may well be more difficult than last time when opinion was more prone to fluctuation, and will depend on winning a small margin of people who are still unsure on the subject.
The electorate as a whole may remain sceptical but SNP activists are excited and enthusiastic about another referendum. With more than 120,000 members, one in every 37 adults in Scotland belongs to the SNP.
Speaking from personal engagements with some of those members in Inverclyde, there is an impatience among many of the members for the starting gun to fire on a new official campaign.
Despite my objections that polling has not exceeded 50 per cent, the response is consistently that the last campaign started with support of 27 per cent and rose to 45 per cent. The next time, we start from a higher point of support. All we need to do now is convince another six per cent, and we’re home free, they say.
Yet this viewpoint is too simplistic. It ignores the point that public opinion of the constitution in Scotland has fluctuated in the last three decades but has remained entrenched since 2014.
In each poll between late-1988 and the mid-1990s, support did not fall below 30 per cent and reached 40 per cent in 1991 and 1992. In 1998, support for independence reached 47 per cent.
For me, this suggests that support for independence has reached a plateau that will require some serious hard graft from dedicated volunteers in order to progress any further.
For five years after December 1999 no single poll showed support for an independent Scotland to be above 30 per cent. Even after the election of a minority SNP government in 2007, support for independence slipped, going as low as 20 per cent in an Ipsos Mori 2009 poll.
Since 2014, however, the vast majority of polls have suggested a fairly consistent support for independence between 40-50 per cent, with don’t knows regularly polling between 6-12 per cent.
Thus, public opinion seems fairly settled on the issue, barring a small percentage of don’t knows. Take into consideration that public opinion has barely shifted despite all the broken promises by the UK Government since the referendum, the election of another Tory government in 2015 and the shambles of Brexit, and the task looks even more daunting.
Therefore, winning those who are currently not in favour of independence may well be more difficult than last time when opinion was more prone to fluctuation, and will depend on winning a small margin of people who are still unsure on the subject.
For me, this suggests that support for independence has reached a plateau that will require some serious hard graft from dedicated volunteers in order to progress any further.
This is why independence is not inevitable. Those who are wishing for a simple re-run of last time with a more favourable outcome will, I fear, be sadly disappointed. This is not a time for bluster over the timings of a second referendum, or overconfident predictions of the outcome thereof.
The independence movement has to reorganise, forget the public demonstrations, and start to think strategically and pre-emptively to win others over to create a substantial majority.
The independence movement has to reorganise, forget the public demonstrations, and start to think strategically and pre-emptively to win others over to create a substantial majority before we even know that plans for a referendum are on the table.
It would be madness to enter a new referendum campaign in a losing position. It’s up to us to get us over the line. Two years on from the independence referendum, we are still locked in an unhelpful dichotomy of 'yessers' and 'unionists'.
Large parts of Yes did not really understand many of the reasons why people voted No, instead dismissing their concerns and often perpetrating a stereotypical image of No voters as selfish ivory-tower dwellers, or 'Britnats' with an unwavering dedication to the jingoism of all things British.
At this stage in the game, such misunderstandings are unacceptable. Concerns over finances, security, status, positional place and identity mattered far more than 'Project Fear' and 'the Vow'.
There is finally an emerging narrative that independence supporters must be conciliatory and reach out to those who voted No. This is helpful. Yet, this will only remain a narrative until we can actually demonstrate reaching out through meaningful action.
This means we need to get our boots on, go out into the cold, and knock some doors. Yes, we’ll take some harsh words. Sometimes the door will slam in your face. But every so often, the person who opens the door will be willing to engage.
We need to get our boots on, go out into the cold, and knock some doors. Yes, we’ll take some harsh words. Sometimes the door will slam in your face. But every so often, the person who opens the door will be willing to engage.
Those are the moments that we in the independence movement should be living for: the opportunities to discuss and debate with an individual when you can see the whites of their eyes; to reason, and to convince, with passion and enthusiasm.
This is where I have issues with the overwhelming number of rallies taking place on a regular basis. Rallies undoubtedly serve a purpose when utilised in the correct ways.
For example, the recent march through Glasgow this year after the EU referendum result was a good example of a unified show of defiance against Brexit. Indeed, rallies can provide a valuable way of uniting often disjointed and disparate groups or individuals involved with the independence movement.
They can then have a galvanising effect on volunteers to motivate them into further action, such as canvassing, setting up street stalls, organising talks that inform others, and delivering leaflets.
But when they are not applied in such ways, rallies simply suggest a lethargy at the heart of the wider campaign; a reluctance to do the more difficult, but absolutely essential, engagement with the wider, non-independence supporting public.
I have had numerous discussions with people about such events. I’ve been met time and time again with the same response that rallies are essential; that they provide useful information to volunteers, while onlookers to the festivities can’t help but be attracted to the colours and pizazz of the goings-on.
Frankly, there is no evidence that rallies are attracting new volunteers to the movement. Quite the contrary.
There is one problem with this conjecture – and it is simply that assumptions are the mother of all f … well, balls-ups.
Frankly, there is no evidence that rallies are attracting new volunteers to the movement. Quite the contrary. If rallies were truly a recruiting tool, then by law of averages the attendance of each rally would gradually have increased since the referendum.
During the final months of the campaign in 2014, each rally in George Square could reasonably expect 3,000-3,500 attendees, by conservative estimates. Today, each rally certainly varies, but attendances generally do not reach more than 1,500.
Out of those, how many of those are the same people who dedicatedly attend as many rallies as they can? As a betting man, I would wager that the majority come under this category. So not only are rallies failing to entice new, undecided voters, they are simply pandering the same messages to the same people time and time again.
For anyone who levels an argument about the merits of a rally attracting 1,500 people, consider this point: for every 1,500 people at a Yes rally, there are 3.6 million voters who are not there. Of that number, over two million voted No in 2014.
Are we really suggesting that the energy invested in organising and attending a rally is better than knocking on the doors of No voters and asking, with complete sincerity, why they did so, and if they would consider changing their minds next time? Of course not. You don’t convert anyone by preaching to the choir.
If we aren’t doing the hard graft of campaigning first and foremost then rallies ultimately serve little purpose but to distract would-be campaigners from doing the ground work.
This may read like a criticism of rallies and those who attend them, but it is not. It is simply positioning a magnifying glass over what is a fundamental problem within the independence movement that simply has to change.
The Yes movement initially had always been about visibility: it had to shout louder to be taken seriously by the media and by voters, and it has done so with enthusiasm and conviction.
But that’s done now. We need to focus our efforts on translating that noise into the necessary votes. Yes, rallies can be great for meeting other like-minded individuals, and are great for sharing ideas and thoughts on how to campaign.
But they should be an afterthought to the prerequisites. If we aren’t doing the hard graft of campaigning first and foremost then rallies ultimately serve little purpose but to distract would-be campaigners from doing the ground work.
It is my contention that if we focussed more on door-knocking on our home turf as much as marching and rallying then we’d be in a more favourable position in the polls.
Part two of this article will discuss why we need to move on from indyref 2014 and start thinking tactically and strategically in preparation for a future referendum.
Picture: CommonSpace
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