Support for independence surges to largest ever poll lead


Nine per cent gap between support for independence and the status quo

THE MAJORITY of people in Scotland would vote ‘Yes’ in a second referendum on independence, according to a new opinion poll released by STV News .

Conducted by polling agency Ipsos Mori during the last week of August, the results found 53 per cent support for independence, 44 per cent support for no change, and three per cent of respondents undecided.

With undecided voters excluded, support for independence is at 55 per cent.

Support for independence has never held such a large lead – nine per cent – in an official polling agency result.

YouGov recorded a narrow lead for independence in November 2014 , yet other polls since the referendum identified little change .

A week before the referendum ICM recorded support for independence at 53 per cent to 47 per cent, although that was with a smaller sample size and with the exclusion of voters who were undecided.

Only four polls published between 2011 and the referendum vote in September 2014 placed a vote for independence in the lead.

SNP strategists, faced with the dilemma of whether to include a second independence referendum in the party’s 2016-2021 manifesto, are likely to require more than a single poll to determine whether there has been a shift in public opinion since the re-election of the Conservative government in May.

The Ipsos Mori result repeated previous polls which calculated the SNP is on track to win the Scottish Parliamentary elections next May.

The Scottish Green Party also recorded gains, with the poll predicting the party would win eight seats on current public support.

Picture courtesy of duncan c